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Spurious Factor Analysis

Spurious Factor Analysis, Alexei Onatski and Chen Wang, Econometrica, Vol 89, Issue 2, pp. 591-614 (2021)

Abstract: 

This paper draws parallels between the principal components analysis of factorless high-dimensional nonstationary data and the classical spurious regression. We show that a few of the principal components of such data absorb nearly all the data variation. The corresponding scree plot suggests that the data contain a few factors, which is corroborated by the standard panel information criteria. Furthermore, the Dickey–Fuller tests of the unit root hypothesis applied to the estimated “idiosyncratic terms” often reject, creating an impression that a few factors are responsible for most of the nonstationarity in the data. We warn empirical researchers of these peculiar effects and suggest to always compare the analysis in levels with that in differences.

Publication Authors: 
Onatski, A. and Wang, C.
Year Publication: 
2021
Publication Type: 
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A ReMeDI for Microstructure Noise

A ReMeDI for Microstructure Noise, Z. Merrick Li and Oliver Linton, Econometrica, Vol. 90, Issue 1, pp. 367-389 (2022)

Abstract: 

We introduce the Realized moMents of Disjoint Increments (ReMeDI) paradigm to measure microstructure noise (the deviation of the observed asset prices from the fundamental values caused by market imperfections). We propose consistent estimators of arbitrary moments of the microstructure noise process based on high-frequency data, where the noise process could be serially dependent, endogenous, and nonstationary. We characterize the limit distributions of the proposed estimators and construct confidence intervals under infill asymptotics. Our simulation and empirical studies show that the ReMeDI approach is very effective to measure the scale and the serial dependence of microstructure noise. Moreover, the estimators are quite robust to model specifications, sample sizes, and data frequencies.

Publication Authors: 
Merrick Li, Z. and Linton, O.
Year Publication: 
2022
Publication Type: 
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